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The party needs to pick up three seats to change the balance of power and earn the ability to set the legislative agenda. A combination of Democratic momentum and Republican retirements makes the chances of a takeover solid but far from certain.
Democrats will field candidates in at least 95 of 99 districts, the most since 1984. The filing deadline is Tuesday.
Democratic donors are giving more money to Assembly races than in previous elections because the state does not have a governor or U.S. Senate race this year. Some lobbying groups that have backed Republicans are hedging their bets this time.
For a quick rundown of fall election facts in Wisconsin, scroll to the end of this story.
A spike in voters who identify with the Democratic Party underscores the favorable environment.
A June poll by the University of Wisconsin-Madison political science department and Wispolitics.com found 49 percent would vote for a generic Democratic candidate in their Assembly district compared to 36 percent who would back a Republican. It had a 4.5 percentage point margin of error.
“Republicans face a really strong headwind this year,” said UW-Madison political scientist Charles Franklin.
Assembly Speaker Mike Huebsch isn’t overly concerned about generic Democrat-Republican polls.
“In the Assembly, all politics is still local,” Huebsch said. “You’ve got to have a good candidate to beat a good candidate. The Republicans have good candidates all over the state. Just local people with good local connections.”
If Democrats win the Assembly and retain the Senate, their party would control both houses of the Legislature and the governor’s office for the first time in 22 years.
Mark Jefferson, executive director of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, said that would give Democrats the ability to push through a liberal agenda. Republicans are determined not to let that happen, he said.
“The Democrats feel this is their chance to take over the Assembly and if they don’t do it this time, they won’t do it in the foreseeable future. I agree,” he said. “But I think they are in for a rude awakening.”
Democratic strategists say their candidates plan to accuse Republicans of failing to govern or even show up to work, noting the Assembly held fewer floor session days than almost any other body in the nation last session. They say that message of bringing change to Madison will dovetail with presidential candidate Barack Obama’s themes.
Republicans will counter by drawing attention to Democratic plans for a $15 billion universal health care plan and to raise taxes on hospitals and oil companies, measures the Assembly’s 52-47 Republican majority blocked, Jefferson said.
A spokesman for Huebsch said the number of floor sessions was an inaccurate gauge of its work, noting the Assembly passed 242 bills that became law.
Jefferson acknowledged Republicans faced a difficult political environment.
The electoral map includes 22 districts held by Republican lawmakers that Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle and Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold carried in previous election cycles, said Rep. Mark Pocan, the Madison Democrat who is plotting the takeover.
Pocan spent recent months recruiting candidates to run even in overwhelming Republican districts as part of the strategy. He said he is helping raise $500,000 for the Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee to double the number of paid staff members working on races to more than 20.
“We have so many possibilities to pick up those three seats now,” Pocan said. “We didn’t anticipate even two months ago we were going to be in this good of a position.”
Pocan said every indicator points to a Democratic year but that could change if the presidential race takes an unexpected turn. Polls show Obama leading Republican Sen. John McCain in Wisconsin but strategists say the race could tighten considerably before November.
The Democrats hope to win seats being vacated by retiring Republicans like Rep. Gene Hahn of Cambria, Rep. Terry Musser of Black River Falls and Rep. Steve Wieckert of Appleton.
“I think we’re poised for another cycle like two years ago” when Democrats picked up eight seats, said former Lodi Mayor Paul Fisk, a Democrat who is running to succeed Hahn. He said a Democrat should carry the district north of Madison but quickly added: “Everything is open to change until the fifth of November.”
For their part, Republicans plan to challenge several Democrats running for re-election for the first time. They are also trying to pick up an open seat vacated by Democrat Barbara Gronemus of Whitehall.
Huebsch said last week he’s been out recruiting Republican candidates around the state.
“It takes a bit of salesmanship to show that the Republicans not only have a very good chance of holding the majority, but we can even expand it in a year that everybody is claiming Republicans are done,” Huebsch said.
Jefferson said Republicans have picked up Assembly seats in every presidential election since 1988 even as Democrat presidential candidates carried Wisconsin.
“We know we’re in for a difficult, competitive election cycle,” he said, “but we’ve been here before and been successful.”
Reid Magney of the La Crosse Tribune contributed to this report.
Election facts
Some facts about the fall election cycle in Wisconsin:
- Tuesday at 5 p.m. is the deadline for candidates to file their paperwork to run.
- Wisconsin’s eight members of the U.S. House are up for re-election. At this point, Democratic Rep. Steve Kagen of Appleton’s re-election campaign appears to be the most competitive race.
- All 99 Assembly two-year seats will be decided. Republicans are trying to defend their 52-47 majority; Democrats see the election as their best chance in years to retake control.
- 16 of 33 four-year seats in the state Senate are up for grabs. Democrats control the chamber 18-15 and are trying to maintain their majority.
- Where a primary is necessary, that will be held Sept. 9.
- The general election is Nov. 4.
enuffalready wrote on Jul 7, 2008 5:38 PM:
The Democrats are not, have never been, and will never be, the party of fiscal responsibility. Neither are the new Republicans. At the present time, we have NO ONE, in either party, willing to say no to spending. Lower tax rates consistently raise revenue for the government. Just look at the historic numbers if you don't believe me. The problem is that there isn't a currently elected official who can say no to any spending program. "