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But the poll, sponsored by Minnesota Public Radio and the University of Minnesota Humphrey Institute, indicates the race is still fluid. It suggests McCain could close the gap, and possibly win in Minnesota, if he picks Gov. Tim Pawlenty as his running mate.
Forty-eight percent of those answering the survey said they support Obama for president, compared with 38 percent for McCain. Three percent favored independent Ralph Nader and 1 percent supported Libertarian Bob Barr.
The telephone survey of 763 likely voters was conducted Aug. 7-17. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Despite the double-digit margin, the race in Minnesota remains fluid, said Larry Jacobs, director of the Humphrey Institute’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance. Jacobs said 10 percent of those polled were undecided, and supporters of each candidate said they might change their minds.
“So this race is very much up in the air and up for play,” he said. “This is not a poll saying Obama has a lock on Minnesota, far from it.”
An independent poll of likely Minnesota voters released in July found that McCain had erased Obama’s once-commanding lead in Minnesota. The poll conducted by Quinnipiac University had Obama up 46 percent to 44 percent, which was within the poll’s margin of sampling error, meaning the race was considered about even. The same pollsters in June put Obama 17-percentage points ahead of McCain.
A Republican presidential candidate hasn’t won in Minnesota since 1972. But Jacobs said the MPR/Humphrey Institute poll found McCain might be able to reverse that trend, if he selects Pawlenty as his vice presidential running mate. One in four of the undecided voters and initial-Obama supporters said they’d back a McCain-Pawlenty ticket.
“We were quite impressed by the impact that Gov. Pawlenty has on McCain’s chances,” Jacobs said. “Our analysis suggests that the McCain ticket jumps by 13 points by adding Gov. Pawlenty to the ticket. That is quite an impact.”
The results show deep disapproval of President Bush’s job performance and a view that the country is heading in the wrong direction. Both of those factors are helping Obama and hurting McCain. Age appears to be a negative for McCain, and lack of experience is hurting Obama.
The poll also found that 9 percent incorrectly believe Obama is Muslim and 42 percent did not know that Obama is a practicing Christian.
The poll found a sizable gender gap in Minnesota. Women voters preferred Obama over McCain by 16 points, while men were split nearly even between the two candidates.
