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That analysis comes in the wake of an election in which Democratic Illinois Sen. Barack Obama carried 59 of the state’s 72 counties - including conservative, rural and traditionally Republican areas — and Democrats gained control of state government after the party won a majority in the Assembly.
“This is the bluest Wisconsin has been in a long time,” said Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, referring to the color associated with Democrats on the electoral map. Democrats are “going to have to do something with that power. They have the voters on their side right now. If they use it wisely, this could be a blue state for a good while into the future.”
Wisconsin hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1984. But Obama’s 56 percent to 43 percent margin of victory over GOP Sen. John McCain of Arizona far outpaced Democratic wins in the state in 2000 and 2004, which each were decided by less than half a percentage point.
Voters in each of Wisconsin’s 72 counties gave Obama a higher percentage of the vote - in some cases by double digits - than they did the party’s 2004 nominee, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts. The increase follows Democratic gains by Kerry in 58 counties compared to 2000.
Combined with the dramatic reversal for the Democrats in the Assembly - just two years ago, the party held only 39 seats in the 99-member house, the lowest number since 1957 - Tuesday’s vote represents “a political change that is really historic,” Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle said. The state Senate will remain in Democratic control.
Democrats suspect last week’s victories don’t represent a permanent shift in voter loyalties. But they do suggest voters believe the party is better equipped to help families during a time of economic uncertainty and as the state faces a $3 billion budget shortfall, leaders say. Now, they have to fulfill those promises.
“We came in and said we’re going to do something to help the economy and create jobs and that’s going to be the first thing we do in January,” said Rep. Mark Pocan, D-Madison, who oversaw the Democratic Assembly election effort.
Pocan said Democrats, who will hold a 52-46 advantage with one independent, pending recounts, also are cognizant their margin is small and will need cooperation from Republicans.
But Mark Jefferson, executive director of the state Republican Party, said Democrats should be careful to avoid policies that involve tax increases.
“I think there’s potential for buyers’ remorse very quickly when we look at what Democrats are poised to do,” he said. “If they start raising taxes the way they’ve shown in the past they’re willing to do, I think they’re going to be in deep trouble in two years.”
Voters shifting
The performance by Obama and the Democrats is underscored by his showings in three areas: The traditionally Republican Fox Valley; rural areas; and swing areas of western Wisconsin.
In Brown County, which Bush won in 2004 by 9.7 percentage points, Obama topped McCain by 9.4 points - a 19.1-point swing.
In addition, Democrats successfully defended a vulnerable freshman lawmaker, Rep. Jim Soletski, D-Green Bay, and defeated Rep. Frank Lasee, R-Bellevue, who led an unsuccessful Assembly effort to adopt a state constitutional amendment limiting government spending and whose district includes part of the county.
In Outagamie County - which Bush won by 8.9 points and 9.7 points in 2000 and 2004, respectively, but which Obama won by 11.7 points - Democrat Penny Bernard Schaber won an open Assembly seat previously held by a Republican.
First-term U.S. Rep. Steve Kagen, a Democrat, also won re-election to the northeastern Wisconsin district that includes Brown and Outagamie counties. Before Kagen won the seat in 2006, it had been held by a Republican for all but eight years since 1943.
Obama also won big in Winnebago County - by 11.7 points - where Bush finished ahead by 6.3 points in 2004 and 5.7 points in 2000. In addition, Democrats narrowly captured the open 18th District Senate seat previously held by a Republican that includes Winnebago County.
Among rural areas, Kerry won Grant County in southwest Wisconsin by nearly 2 percentage points in 2004. But Obama won the county by 24 points and picked up more than 2,000 votes than Kerry.
Republicans thought they had a good chance to knock off freshman incumbent Rep. Phil Garthwaite, D-Fennimore, who represents the county. But Garthwaite easily won re-election. Jefferson attributed Garthwaite’s victory in part to McCain’s poor showing in the county.
Even in rural counties where down-ticket Democrats lost, the party showed new vigor. Obama took heavily GOP Waupaca County by 3.3 points. Bush won the county by 18.4 points in 2000 and 19 points in 2004.
In the swing areas of western Wisconsin, where Assembly seats frequently have changed parties and which both McCain and Obama visited twice this summer and fall, Democrats appeared to be consolidating recent gains. Obama won Eau Claire County by more than 22 points, for example, far higher than Kerry’s 10-point win in 2004.
Democrat Kristin Dexter defeated incumbent Rep. Terry Moulton, R-Chippewa Falls, in the 68th Assembly District that includes parts of Eau Claire County. And freshman incumbent Jeff Smith, D-Eau Claire, defeated his GOP challenger by 18 points.
Those are the kind of results Democrats say could allow them to realign the state in their favor.
“(The vote) gives us a massive opportunity to demonstrate and convince the people of Wisconsin that we should be a solid blue state,” said Mike Tate, executive director of Advancing Wisconsin, an independent political group that worked to elect Obama and Democratic lawmakers.
Looking ahead
Their first test will be in 2010, when voters choose a governor, attorney general, other constitutional officers, key legislative seats and the U.S. Senate seat held by Middleton Democrat Russ Feingold. Democrats’ chances depend upon how well they govern.
“Good policy is good politics, and if that happens, the Democrats are going to have a good election two years from now,” said Mark Graul, a Republican consultant. “If they run hard to the left and exclude Republicans from being a part of the solution, they’re going to be in a tough political environment two years from now. With victory comes responsibility.”
For their part, Republicans say they see no need to go back to the drawing board.
Jefferson said he thinks voters are finished punishing GOP lawmakers - including those on the state level - for the problems associated with President Bush and Congressional Republicans: the Iraq War, excessive spending and corruption scandals.
And he cited the Assembly Republicans’ effort to beat back tax increases proposed by Democrats in the current state budget. That showed the party got back to its core message of low taxes and limited government.
“I think at the state level we did a decent enough job of redefining the brand,” Jefferson said. “It wasn’t enough to swim against the tide.”
State Journal reporter Jason Stein contributed to this story.
