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A local study suggests we’re in for a colder than average winter. Then again, maybe not.
According to the national Climate Prediction Center, fickle Pacific Ocean currents won’t commit to a La Nina pattern, which makes for a colder, drier winter in the Upper Midwest, or her brother, El Nino, who brings warmer, wetter weather.
Instead, it’s shaping up to be a “La Nada,” the unofficial meteorological term for normal, which makes forecasting tough.
Translation: “There’s kind of mixed signals out there with regards to the temperature,” said meteorologist Todd Shea of the National Weather Service in La Crosse. “The fuzzy caterpillars are telling us two different things.”
The best predictor in these situations is trend, and of the last 10 winters, eight were warmer than normal, said meteorologist Jeff Boyne.
But there are half a dozen wild cards in this deck, including a phenomenon called the North Atlantic Oscillation — like El Nino but in the Atlantic Ocean and less predictable.
And the Pacific and atmosphere are showing La Nina tendencies, Boyne said. If the pattern holds, expect a colder, drier winter.
But an early snowstorm could keep temperatures a few degrees cooler, creating a “snowball” effect, Shea said. That’s part of what happened last winter, the fifth-snowiest on record.
2centsworth wrote on Nov 15, 2008 7:41 AM: