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Published - Sunday, November 16, 2008

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NFL picks: Betting against Peyton Manning waas a mistake


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For the most part last week’s schedule played out as expected. I was 11-2 on the week. Sadly, that’ll put a little spring in your step if you’re a schmuck like me.

The two games I missed were Green Bay at Minnesota and Indianapolis at Pittsburgh. I can live with missing on the Packers game because I always have a hard time envisioning a Vikings victory. But picking against the Colts was just the hubris of “relative youth.”
It was just too easy to get caught up in the Steelers’ pass rush and all the Manning-is-slipping nonsense. I also somehow forgot that opposing defenses have been treating Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger like a piñata as of late.

Unfortunately for me, it wasn’t until after the games were over that I was reminded by a “Senior Prognosticator” from Glendale Avenue that nobody ever got rich betting against Peyton Manning.

Now that I think about it, I’m guessing this week’s “the Titans are due for a loss” theory isn’t going to buy me a vacation home either.

Chicago at Green Bay

Despite Chicago’s recent success at Lambeau this should be a tough matchup for the Bears. The strength of Green Bay’s offense is clearly their passing game while Chicago is ranked 30th against the pass. Look for the Packers’ offense to get back on track.

Prediction: Packers by 7

Minnesota at Tampa Bay

The well-balanced Buccaneers (top 10 in offense and defense) will give the Vikings a rough time. Tampa Bay’s defense is good enough to limit Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson, which means more responsibility falls on Gus Frerotte. Which usually means more passes fall in the arms of defenders.

Prediction: Buccaneers by 6

Denver at Atlanta

There is an old football expression that says: “A good defense travels well.” In the Broncos’ case it’s reasonable to say they’re traveling light. Atlanta’s Michael Turner should make fantasy owners giddy this week.

Prediction: Falcons by 5

Philadelphia at Cincinnati

Nothing eases the sting of a tough divisional loss better than a trip to Cincinnati. This week it is the Eagles’ turn to enjoy the therapeutic effects of the Bengalizer (available for three comfortable payments of $19.95).

Prediction: Eagles by 6

Houston at Indianapolis

The Colts appear to have gotten back on track on offense and Bob Sanders has the defense playing at new heights. The Texans on the other hand seem to be afraid of heights, because they consistently play at a low level.

Prediction: Colts by 8

New Orleans at Kansas City

The Chiefs almost knocked off the Chargers last week, but they have the worst defense in the NFL and the high-flying Saints offense is coming to town. Don’t be surprised if Drew Brees throws for 400-plus yards and four touchdowns.

Prediction: Saints by 4

Oakland at Miami

This used to be one of the most glamorous matchups in the NFL. The Dolphins are doing their part to restore their franchise, but the Raiders are becoming more of a punchline everyday. I like Al Davis as much as the next guy, he kind of reminds me of Jonathan Winters. He was really quick on his feet but crazy as a loon, and I really like that combination. I just don’t think Jonathan Winters should run an NFL team.

Prediction: Dolphins by 9

Baltimore at N.Y. Giants

If the Ravens’ rookie quarterback Joe Flacco can keep his cool this could be a fantastic game. The chance to see Giants running back Brandon Jacobs and the Ravens’ Ray Lewis meet in the hole is worth the price of admission by itself.

Prediction: Giants by 3

Detroit at Carolina

The Lions are still looking for win No. 1, but they aren’t going to find it here. If this is still a game at halftime the Panthers owe their fans an apology.

Prediction: Panthers by 11

St. Louis at San Francisco

A classic battle to see who is more disappointing, on one hand you have the more talented but underachieving Rams and on the other you have a marginally talented 49ers team with a bungling set of coaches running the show. In the end talented but heartless usually wins over slow and stupid.

Prediction: Rams by 2

Arizona at Seattle

Matt Hasselbeck should make his return to the lineup today. If I were Matt I might reconsider that decision. Kurt Warner continues to have an MVP-type season for the Cardinals as they run away with the NFC West. Playing the Seahawks should allow them to run a little further.

Prediction: Cardinals by 5

San Diego at Pittsburgh

The Chargers’ Phillip Rivers is having a great season, but he hasn’t seen the kind of pressure the Steelers bring on passing downs. The Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger should be in for a far more leisurely afternoon against the Chargers and the NFL-worst pass defense that they’ll be bringing to town.

Prediction: Steelers by 3

Tennessee at Jacksonville

The Titans come into this game 9-0, while the Jaguars are floundering at 4-5. While Tennessee is a terrific story, this is not an invincible team. Look for the clock to strike 12 right around 6:30 Central time today for this Cinderella story.

Prediction: Jaguars by 1

Dallas at Washington

Quarterback Tony Romo is expected back this week and the Cowboys are certainly glad to see him. Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger reminded the Cowboys of two important things: 1. It is very important to have a solid No. 2 QB. 2. They don’t have a solid No. 2 QB. It also looks like the Redskins will be without running back Clinton Portis.

Prediction: Cowboys by 1

Cleveland at Buffalo

The Bills are in the middle of their annual swoon after giving the people of Buffalo a glimmer of hope before they slip back into their perpetual state of failure anticipation. Meanwhile the Browns are entering Week 2 of the Brady Quinn era, which means the people of Cleveland are feeling hopeful and Derek Anderson is going to need a lot of boxes and a friend with a pickup truck.

Prediction: Bills by 1
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